4.11.2005

The Data for an oil peak

National Geographic article, "The End of Cheap Oil" (particularly interesting is the window at the bottom which assures us that the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has 648 million barrels of oil stockpiled in saltmines. Considering North American consumption of oil is about 25 million barrels a day, that works out to about a month's worth of gas): http://magma.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0406/feature5/index.html

USGS Petroleum Assessment Report 2000: http://pubs.usgs.gov/dds/dds-060/ Go to the Executive Summary: http://energy.cr.usgs.gov/WEcont/chaps/ES.pdf
Our expert team crunched the numbers. Assuming 3 trillion barrels of remaining oil, consumed at the rate of 83 million barrels a day, that leaves 99 years remaining consumption. One has to consider that these numbers are mean projections. Colin Campbells number of remaining oil is 1.9 trillion barrels. That leaves 62 remaining years. Considering consumption will rise in the next decade given new demands from India, China, and the emerging world, calculations could be made over real decline.

World Oil Production in millions of barrels per day (mbd) per oil producing country: http://www.worldoil.com/INFOCENTER/STATISTICS_DETAIL.asp?Statfile=_worldoilproduction

World Oil Demand from 1995-2004 in millions of barrels per day (Matt Simmons article): http://www.worldoil.com/Magazine/MAGAZINE_DETAIL.asp?ART_ID=2486

A portfolio for Guinness/Atkinson funds. A fund portfolio of the oil sector. By their numbers, the total oil depletion will happen within forty years!http://www.gafunds.com/futureofenergy.pdf

A.M.S. Bakhtiari (Senior Expert, National Iranian Oil Company) gives his model:
http://www3.telus.net/public/a6a20277/conference/WOCAP.htm

Aklett's chart showing consumption exceeding discovery:http://www.peakoil.net/DiscoverGap.html

The global bidding war for dwindling reserves:
http://www.boston.com/news/world/asia/articles/2005/02/15/chevrontexaco_warns_of_global_bidding_war/

A precis of the Arab Oil Embargo Crisis of 1973-4: http://www.buyandhold.com/bh/en/education/history/2002/arab.html

A Wall Street Journal article with industry and opposing views to Dr. Campbell's model of peak oil: http://www.energybulletin.net/2188.html?ENERGYBULL=724c6f3b5dd311f7c8928a502d47ee5e

The argument for a recession based on oil peak scenario: http://www.energybulletin.net/5183.html

Aljazeera reports Saudi top field (Gharwar) in decline: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/08B97BCF-7BE6-4F1D-A846-7ACB9B0F8894.htm

Paul Krugman, "A whiff of stagflation": http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/18/opinion/18krugman.html?