Falling Sky Scenarios

The concept of a falling sky is originally connected with the belief that the sky will fall. It is identified with apocalypse theorists, millenialists, etc. For an interesting article on the boom in these end-of-timers see: http://www.nypress.com/17/38/news&columns/feature.cfmIt is by extension that the concept of a 'falling sky' describes any of a number of predictive assessments of the future likelihood of the failure of a market. The employment of 'falling sky' scenarios is usually associated with the collapse of markets, such as when a bubble bursts, or a sector dries up. In its association with the economic system of exchange, falling sky is a metaphor used to describe a scenario, but it may also be used to describe a doomsday prediction that may or may not materialize. Their appeal consists in their likelihood of being true. For markets have surely collapsed and there have been those who have predicted their collapse.

They are a social product, for they dwell in the space of human imagination and consent (the free market) and they often have a material basis, such as when a commodity gets scarce. They are point-releases that can shake loose confidence in a sector, thereby diminishing value. Investors are wary of them, wanting not to believe they are true, but admitting that there is some likelihood to their being true.

More concretely, a "falling sky" is located in things falling out of the sky: hail, rain, mortarshells? And there is a connection to the thunderbolt of Zeus which "steers all things". Falling skies may be associated by the religiously minded with divine retribution for past social sins incurred. There is something numinous about the idea of a falling sky.

So what distinguishes a "falling sky" scenario from a rational prediction? Technically, nothing. A falling sky scenario is a label applied to a rational prediction. There may be less and more rational predictions (better supported), of course. But it is a term of decor for those who wish to utilize the rational prediction. A "falling sky" scenario has the connotation of initial plausibility but eventual unlikeliness. To declare that something is a "falling sky" scenario, one may thereby downplay the likelihood of social assent to the prediction.

Perhaps "falling sky" scenarios enjoy this connotation on account of the Chinese story, and one which is surely repeated elsewhere, of the man who, being ignorant of the properties of air, lived in fear of the sky falling down upon him. But the wise man, gives him a palliative answer and informs him that air cannot fall, just as earth cannot sink. The man was thus relieved. For story see: http://www.chinapage.com/story/skyfalling.html But the wise man's salve, as the commentator suggests, is a "faulty explanation"....